My second prediction is that the ITC market will continue to fall in the EMEA as a proportion of world spending. My Figure shows the extent to which EMEA’s share has fallen in numerous different product types since 2006. My current forecast based on Q3 results suggests that EMEA spending will fall by 1.6% to $1.9 trillion (and by 0.7% to €1.6 trillion in Euros), compared with a growth of 3.3% in the Americas (to $2.6 trillion) and of 3.1% to $2.2 trillion in Asia Pacific (2.6% to￥189 trillion).
The reason is that EMEA lacks leadership in ITC. The EU, which is the largest economic group in the region is doing nothing to promote the interests of its leading vendors. The disruption of Brexit and potential independence of Catalonia from Spain is destroying the weak coordination of previous years, with the result of relegating EMEA to a vassal state dependent on the US for ideas and innovation and China for the manufacturing of the products it consumes. Even in telecoms the largest suppliers Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom and BT have failed to become regional champions. The sale of ARM Holdings to Softbank of NXP to Qualcomm has left EMEA devoid of chip suppliers. I expect the consequences of falling behind will be increasing conflict between the EU and major foreign suppliers, especially when the General Data Protection regulation comes into force in May. I wouldn’t be surprised if the EU tried to ban some very large global ITC vendors or other countries from selling to its citizens in 2018, which are set out as possibilities in the regulations.
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