Time has gone so fast… I can scarcely believe I’m in the process of writing my 10th set of annual predictions for the worldwide IT and communications market. As always I’m starting with an assessment of those I made for this year.
Table – ITCandor 2018 predictions – a self-assessment
| No. | My top 10 predictions | Score | Comment |
| 1 | The global ITC market grows 1.8% to $6.7 trillion | 7 | The market grew by 4.0% in $US to $6.5 trillion |
| 2 | EMEA ITC spending falls behind the Americas and Asia Pacific | 10 | In local currency the both the Americas and Asia Pacific grew by 2.9%, EMEA by 0.0% |
| 3 | UK the worst, Switzerland the best country for spending growth | 10 | The UK was the worst (-6% in Pounds), Switzerland (12% in Francs) was best |
| 4 | SaaS, IaaS, PaaS – the fastest growing offerings | 8 | IaaS growth was 27.5%, PaaS was 29.1%, SaaS at 12.1% was beaten by operating systems (12.8%) |
| 5 | Cloud – local and regional CSPs gain against global giants | 7 | Yes, but the hyperscalers have also been building out in-country data centers |
| 6 | People are the product, but they don’t get paid | 10 | One supplier at least looking at paying users for use of their personal data in smartphone apps |
| 7 | Enterprise computing shifts off premise – AWS replaces Cisco as top enterprise supplier | 5 | Cisco still outperformed AWS in the enterprise market (at least to the end of September). However ‘multi-cloud’ strategies abound. |
| 8 | Storage commoditisation puts more suppliers out of business | 10 | Microsoft acquired Avere, Violin Memory came out of Chapter 11 and bought X-IO |
| 9 | Oracle makes strong headway as an enterprise supplier | 5 | It grew 3% to $39.8b – better than HPE and Fujitsu, same as IBM and Cisco, worse than Dell EMC and Huawei |
| 10 | Automation will create social disorder | 5 | Not really – Brexit protests in the UK, yellow jacket protests in Paris, etc. were about different issues |
Source, ITCandor, 2018
So overall my accuracy was 77% – just short of that for 2017 (78%), better than for 2016 (74%), but worse than in 2015 (84%). Luckily there were no neo-luddite riots, but the rise of new nationalism continued – culminating in the trade wars between the USA and China. 2019 is going to be very hard to predict – there’s nothing more certain than change itself. Nevertheless I’m having fun working on them and will get them to you as quickly as I can.
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