ITC spending will grow most in China, shrink most in the UK

ITC spending in China will grow the most (1% to $474 billion), the USA will remain the largest market ($2 trillion), but drop by 1.1%. The UK will drop the furthest (-4.0% to $275 billion) of the major markets.
The USA has been very badly affected by the pandemic and a blasé president – more interested in creating division in, than unifying, society. Doing something to reduce infection rates will be a major effort for Joe Biden. I expect him to raise corporation tax at some point, but perhaps not in the first year of his term. The economic recession is already biting and will become more conspicuous as the antivirus helps restore more normality. US suppliers (who have dodged them) will also have to pay more taxes in many international markets.
China has had a number of advantages in dealing with the pandemic; this was not the first major epidemic it has had to deal with and the government has a much stronger knowledge and control of its citizens’ activities, making lockdowns more effective. Nevertheless I expect ITC spending to be restricted in 2021, not least because demand for the goods it manufactures will plummet as the recession takes hold of many of the countries it exports to.
The UK started a new experiment in sovereignty in 2016, when a hastily pulled-together referendum resulted in a narrow majority in favour of leaving the EU. Its government’s handling of the pandemic has been arguably more logical, but equally as ineffective as America’s. It starts 2021 under new trading rules with neighbouring countries cobbled together on Xmas eve. The disruption caused will deepen the recession, making it more difficult to sell computer products. The result for the ITC industry will be the steepest decline in spending anywhere in the world.
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