This is dedicated to my friend and colleague Chis Christiansen, who is sadly is no longer with us. It would have been better with his help.
So we’ve managed to get 2020 behind us. I’m proud of the extent to with our industry has played a vital role in helping to create a more meaningful virtual world when we could go far in the physical one.
Here are my predictions for 2021. They are important for me in drawing up my research agenda for the future.
I’d like to thank all my work colleagues who have helped me enormously to survive 2020. I wish you all a Happy New Year and long for a time when we can meet in person once more.
Mildly encouraged by the accuracy of my last predictions for – what turned out to be – an exceptional year, I’m keen to share with you my vision for the ITC industry in 2021. This is a summary of my predictions:
1. The world market for IT and communications will fall 1% to $6.8 trillion
2. ITC spending will grow most in China, shrink most in the UK
3. Software will be the only category to see growth
4. IaaS will grow most, Peripherals least
5. The rise of small business as an ITC buyer
6. Taxation and recession will challenge the $10 billion supplier club
7. Governments and big business strengthen protection from mutating cyber crime
8. Millions will stay working from home, even when the pandemic ends
9. 55 million gaming consoles will ship
10.The ITC industry takes strides to counter global warming
The ITC market is so large – and mature in many countries – that it will show little overall change in 2021; however, like a swan gliding on a lake, its passage may look smooth, but there’ll be a lot of paddling under the water.