Many of us forgot how dependent the just-in-time delivery of IT and communications offerings was on a successful, growing economy. Disruptions in the last few years have largely been blamed the effects of the pandemic on component manufacturing, although we should also look at increased nationalism (Trump, Putin, Brexit, etc.) and climate change events as a causes.
My Figure above shows the production of silicon wafers of various process sizes on a quarterly basis using data provided by TSMC and UMC in their financial results. Supply-chain problems stem from the facts that fabrication plants cost billions to build and, once created, each process size will typically be manufactured indefinitely. The scarcity of many semiconductors in the last three years were caused not just by the closure of plants due to the pandemic, but also the broad sanctions taken out by the US government against specific Chinese suppliers and the closing of some less profitable production lines by chip fabricators.
Many customers are having to wait months between ordering and getting their hands on new equipment, with some of them turning to second-hand equipment in the interim. Eking out the continuing value of older products will become a necessity in 2022.
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