It’s that time again for me to make predictions for the coming 12 months. It will be a year dominated by politics and conflict. In particular Trumps’s second presidency will see the introduction of tariffs and taxes that will distort and restrict the natural growth of many ITC markets in most countries and regions. I hope that we’ll see peace declared somewhere, be it in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza, Lebanon and/or Israel and that the overthrow of Assad in Syria will herald a respite for its citizens: who knows, it could even be the precursor to the overthrow of Putin in Russia. Although hopeful for peace, I expect war to continue, amplified by advanced technology in drones and missiles and accompanied by state-sponsored cyber-attacks on military and civilian infrastructure. These are my 10 predictions:
- Total ITC market spending will remain level with 2024 at $7.5 trillion, but net profits surge by 13%
- Asia Pacific spending will grow by 5%; while it will decline by 2% in both the Americas and EMEA
- China will lead in terms of ITC spending growth (+9%); UAE will be bottom (-5%); the USA will be the largest market, but see a 2% decline
- Among the 4 categories Hardware will stay ahead of Software spending in 2025. IT Service will continue to lead, while spending on Telecom Service will decline again
- Among the different offerings spending will grow most on Servers and decline most of Peripherals
- New trade tariffs from President Trump and responses from China and the EU will create supply shortages and hinder market growth
- Greater use of generative AI reduces the number of white-collar workers, creating IT luddite movement
- Criminals hack AES 256 encryption – users rush to adopt quantum-safe code
- Global warming and ITC – moves to reign in spurious workloads to cut carbon emissions
- Social media companies face increasing restrictions and outright bans for failing to remove harmful content
As always I wish you well for the New Year. ITCandor will continue to research the most important themes and events, reporting them here. Enjoy!
Martin, Didcot, 31st December 2024
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