Openreach put beyond BT’s reach

uk telco

BT and Virgin Media are the sole suppliers of fibre optic broadband connections to homes and businesses in the UK and, while Virgin Media connects for its own business, other companies such as Talk Talk, Sky and Vodaphone are forced to use Openreach and have been spending years arguing that it should be separated from BT’s other businesses – a view that UK regulator OffCom agrees with. Last week BT announced that it intends to separate OpenReach from its other businesses by creating its own board, although retaining ownership. You’ll want to think about the consequences.

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HPE adds flash and analytics through acquiring Nimble storage

nimble

The storage systems market is growing again for the first time in years on the back of new larger disk drives delivered by western Digital and Seagate last year. It’s been a long wait for the largest suppliers… and some didn’t make it; as we all know EMC was the market leader when acquired by Dell. Part of the challenge has been how to farm the existing business while addressing new technical components and applications – one reason why most of the interesting new products (flash, in memory, hadoop analytics, software defined storage) have come from start-ups and smaller suppliers. Yesterday HPE announced that it intends to buy Nimble storage for around $1.09b in cash. You’ll want to consider what it will gain from this move and what it means for its customers and competitors. Read more »

Polycom private since July – please keep us up to date on your success

polycom

Polycom was bought by Siris Capital Group for $2b in July 2016 after a bid by Canadian company Mitel was scrapped. as a private company I’m currently estimating its performance (see my Figure). As with Rackspace and other privatising suppliers – I hope the new company will find a way of keeping us informed on its business and financial performance… and by ‘us’ I mean customers, prospects as well as researchers like me. For the record it claims to have 415k customers for its HQ video conferencing and telephony solutions currently.

Rackspace is private – please keep giving us info!

rackspace

Rackspace is a leader in enterprise managed and cloud hosting. It has been a signal vendor for ITCandor, helping me to plot the uptake in the important move away from the do-it-all-yourself style of computing, where (typically large and medium) organisations built datacentres on their own land and filled them with gear, staff and software. In November it was bought by Apollo Global Management and – as a private company – I don’t expect to get much of an on-going commentary from the company on its financial and customer achievements, or on the balance between its managed hosting and cloud business. My Figure shows the steady progress of its revenues by quarter since 2006 as well as its net profits, which have always been positive. I’m hoping to find some on-going information (as I can for ARM from its new owners Softbank), but if not I’ll have to estimate them. For the record (and as an aide memoire for me) it had around 300k customers and 119k servers in its last reported results for Q3 last year.

Business performance information is very important for Rackspace’s customers and prospects of course.

Tech Data takes Avnet’s Technology Solutions division – bigger global datacentre capabilities

tdan revenue
Despite strong political and social anti-globalisation movements in the UK, America and other countries the IT and Communications industry continues to favour the economies of scale; not least in the distribution of equipment where Tech Data will finalise its $2.6b acquisition of Avnet’s Technology Solutions business along with around 5k staff later this month. My Figure shows the revenues of both companies on a rolling 4 quarter basis, including a split between Avnet’s Electronic Marketing and Technology Solutions divisions. You’ll want to think about the implications of this for the industry. Read more »

Macom buys Applied Micro for $770m – poor for ARM server development

net income
Macom Technology Solutions Holdings has announced its intention to acquire applied Micro for c.$770m – an important move in the large (but often overlooked) semiconductor market. Both companies are relatively new of course, but their relative success in terms of net income has been very different (see my Figure for a comparison based on a rolling 4-quarter analysis). Let’s look at the announced deal a bit more closely. Read more »

HPE buys Simplivity – winners, losers and implications

user

Last week HP announced that it is acquiring Simplivity – a leading independent supplier of HyperConverged Infrastructure (HCI) appliances and software for $650m. In this post I look at the winners and losers and implications for server users. Read more »

Order the ‘2017 forecasts and predictions’ report

2017-01

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When to buy and sell ITC companies

profit
I’ve been thinking a lot about HP’s decision to buy Simplivity this week; in the process I’ve come across and issue which I’ve never heard discussed before. There’s a 3-year cycle in net profit for the whole industry, which I show – together with my forecast – in this Figure. It has implications for buying and selling IT and Communications suppliers, whether shares or entire companies. I’m sure those of you looking at M&A activity and in the financial community will want to think more about it as you do your forecasts for coming quarters and years. Read more »

ITCandor 2017 predictions – political and social uncertainty limit ITC market growth

cropped-monopoly1.jpgMy (somewhat dystopian) view of 2017 – it will be a year of modest growth despite major social, political and economic changes which will make doing business more complicated. To make the most of the opportunities suppliers should launch Blockchain and virtual reality offerings, look to oil-producing countries for growth, replace their (increasingly irrelevant) marketing themes, restructure to address core business and manage profitability more than revenue growth. I encourage you to build stronger corporate and social responsibility (CSR) strategies, which should include where and how much corporation tax you pay; you should try to emulate the large Japanese corporations who include their workers and families as stakeholders alongside their owners and shareholders.

My 2017 predictions are:

  1. The ITC market will grow by 1.5% in 2017 to reach $6.3T.
  2. ITC spending growth will grow considerably in oil producing countries as oil production is restricted, raising prices.
  3. Suppliers will address product and services markets in genuinely innovative ways, while redefining their core businesses.
  4. Blockchain systems will create significant changes in the way citizens, consumers and businesses exchange and pay for products.
  5. Virtual and augmented reality will be widely adopted by businesses at an industry sector and specialised application levels.
  6. Growing business uncertainty and the reduction of the number and scope of free trade zones across the world will impact ITC sales negatively.
  7. New and more useful marketing campaigns will replace the current (increasingly irrelevant) Cloud, IoT, IoE and Big Data themes.
  8. Internet usage will continue to expand despite major failures to protect business, customer and citizen data in 2017.
  9. Cisco will restructure itself in a major way in 2017 in order to compete more effectively with other leading ITC suppliers.
  10. Growing nationalism and protectionism will have a measurable and significant negative impact, making our skills shortages even worse.

Vendors will have to work harder to stay in the same place financially, which is excellent news for customers, who will get more ‘bang for bucks’ through the increasing commoditisation of ITC offerings.

Thank you once more to all of my fabulous friends and colleagues who have guided my thoughts published here. Of course this research is designed to demonstrate my expertise in understanding and predicting market growth – let me know whether you agree, disagree and find this of useful or not.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 1 – more market growth, more commoditisation

My first prediction is that the ITC market will grow by 1.5% in 2017 to reach $6.3T.

This will be less than in 2016 and there will be much more commoditisation, which will be great for users; like swans kicking hard underwater, suppliers (see Figure 1 for the leaders) will need to do a lot of unseen things to maintain slow forward momentum.

Figure 1 – the leading ITC suppliers

2017-01

Source: ITCandor, 2017

Net profit will be harder to find than revenues – I expect the total to decline by 0.4% to reach $585B. For the fourth year in a row total vendor headcount will grow – unlike those industries which they supply, who will shed thousands of jobs through automation and digital transformation; in 2017 total employment in the ITC industry will grow 1.0% to 19.3M worldwide.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 2 – oil producing countries back on tap or sales growth

Figure 2A – regional growth in constant and current currency – 2014-2018

2017-02a

Source: ITCandor, 2017

There will continue to be a disparity between growth in local and constant $ terms (especially in Asia Pacific) due to currency fluctuations (see Figure), although I expect those to be somewhat less than in recent years.

Figure 2B – local and regional forecast

2017-02b

Source: ITCandor, 2017

The Americas will continue to be the largest consumer of ITC, spending a total of $2.4T in 2017 compared with $2.0T in Asia Pacific and $1.82T in EMEA.

I expect Japan to lead and Russia to continue to lag in terms of annual spending growth – see Figure 2A, where I’ve highlighted the sub-regional totals in red.

My second prediction is that ITC spending growth will improve significantly in oil producing countries, as oil production is restricted, raising prices.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 3 – fewer suppliers, greater leverage of expertise for ITC offerings

Figure 3 – category and offering forecast

2017-03

Source: ITCandor, 2017

Figure 3 shows my 2017 forecast for ITC products and services by type; it shows growth (the blue bars) and profitability (pink) predictions for each; I’ve circled the total and 3 category totals in red. By adding estimates for the size of these sub-markets and assumptions for the expertise and economies of scale needed to participate effectively it’s possible to assess the comparative standing of each.

In 2016 there were numerous organisational changes among vendors trying to focus on their core business. Dell and HPE respectively disposed of their Perot and EDS outsourcing/managed services businesses as well as much of their software businesses for instance. The rationale? Outsourcing is relatively large, but lacks strong growth and profitability and, although software has reasonable growth and the highest profitability, its revenue potential is small in comparison with hardware and services markets.

My third prediction is that suppliers will address product and services markets in genuinely innovative ways, while redefining their core businesses.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 4 – Blockchain and the arrival of digital disintermediation

Figure 4 – Blockchain Smart Contract example

2017-04

Source: ITCandor, 2017

My fourth prediction is that Blockchain systems will create significant changes in the way citizens, consumers and businesses exchange and pay for products.

Users and vendors should consider joining one of the 3 current development groups (BitCoin, Ethereum or Hyperledger) to simplify transaction processes – improving efficiency, reducing settlement times and reducing costs at the same time. Circumventing the human intermediaries in these ‘systems of trusted transactions’, (see Figure) blockchain services will reduce the current employment levels in a number of industries including stock trading, banking, currency exchanges, estate agencies among other. I’ll be sizing and forecasting blockchain as part of implementation services, PaaS, IaaS and other software classes, although (like the Internet) it’s going to be hard to measure the uptake of what is essentially a programming and application style.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 5 – Augmented and Virtual Reality – no longer a game!

Figure 5 –a virtual dinosaur on the Jurassic coast

2017-05

Source: ITCandor, 2017

Three-dimensional photography has been with us since the 19th century and 3 dimensional TVs are a small, but important, part of the higher end of the market, while digitised virtual worlds have been with us since Second Life was launched in 2003. Faster processing and smart programming techniques are allowing viewers to mix the 2 to enter and participate in virtual gaming worlds. For instance:

  • Pokeman Go was one of the most important games of 2016, allowing players to search and kill virtual monsters while walking the streets
  • VR glasses such as HTC Vive are giving gamers (whether on Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo dedicated consoles or PCs) deeper and far more ‘immersive’ experiences.

In 2017 the consumer market will grow significantly, although it will remain an up-market option.

My fifth prediction is that virtual and augmented reality will be widely adopted by businesses at an industry sector and specialised application levels. Example vertical markets will include Healthcare, Education, Finance and Manufacturing; applications will include surgery, immersive learning, database and analytics, CFD and telematics.

Its success will also have a positive effect on videoconferencing, solid printing and PaaS markets, as well as driving the uptake of the most advanced processors and storage from companies such as AMD, Intel, NVidia and others.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 7 – suppliers will rethink mega-theme marketing

Figure 7 – 2017 marketing themes

2017-07

Source: ITCandor, 2017

Perhaps because real differences in technology are hard to grasp, our industry is full of meta-language used by suppliers to persuade users to spend money with them. In 2017 a number of these have reached their sell-by date. I need to be careful here as I often use them as short-cut terms myself, however let me explain what I mean:

  • Big Data – spending on storage systems market declined every quarter between Q1 2012 and Q2 2016, while there has been massive vendor consolidation among their suppliers (including the market leader, EMC) as well as among manufacturers of disk, NAND drives and DRAM memory. In Q1 2016 there was even been a simultaneous decline in revenue, net profit, capacity and unit shipments of all raw storage and systems – putting paid to the claims of exponential capacity growth included in many of the Big Data marketing pitches I’ve seen. The words ‘Big Data’ add nothing to the meaning of ‘Analytics’ either, apart from underlining the hope that users will spend money on arrays as well as application tools. Big Data does not define a different style of computing from ‘traditional’ storage techniques either. I propose using ‘scale up’ and scale out’ to define the differences in style of storage as they are by some in the server market.
  • Internet of Things/Everything – these are relatively pointless terms for embedding processing, sensors and Internet connections into machinery, tools and processes. Of course there is an on-going expansion of the number of devices which can supply information to and be controlled within the digital domain, but ‘things’ is too general – and ‘everything’ too broad – to define this expansion of our industry.
  • Cloud Computing – no longer a useful term due to its general meaning and universal adoption to describe vendor strategies and offerings. It would be less prejudicial and more helpful to use a mix of ‘on’ and ‘off’ premise, ownership (customer or supplier) and system management (ditto) to describe the differences in IT system deployment, as well as PaaS, IaaS and SaaS to describe ‘cloud’ services. At heart eBay is an auction company, Amazon – a bookseller and salesforce.com, a sales automation services supplier. Making lots of noise about Cloud Computing in 2017 is the equivalent of still printing the word ‘quartz’ on clock faces long after the market for (once competitive) analogue equivalents has died.

Branded marketing support products such as Gartner’s Magic Quadrant and IDC’s Digital Transformation also have little value for guiding user purchasing decisions, despite the revenues and profits they make for their originators; suppliers will spend more on long-tail marketing in future.

My seventh prediction is (more in hope than expectation perhaps) that new and more useful marketing campaigns will replace the current (increasingly irrelevant) Cloud, IoT, IoE and Big Data themes.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 8 – users continue to expose themselves to the perils of social media

Figure 8 – the success of social media

2017-08

Source: ITCandor, 2017

There’s no question that the Internet has become a major part of everyday life, creating huge revenues for pioneering vendors (see Figure 8 for the evolution of the total revenues of the major suppliers). Despite the numerous successes of hackers, identity thieves, spammers, Wikileaks and others, consumers continue to embrace an ever-increasing involvement. The majority of users are either ignorant or unconcerned about the potential dangers of Internet usage. Making life easier and more fun seems to be more important than the obvious perils of using these immature systems – many of which are owned by foreign companies operating outside the laws and regulations of their own country.

My eighth prediction is that Internet usage will continue to expand despite major failures to protect business, customer and citizen data in 2017. Despite the renewed nationalism shown in the election of Donald Trump to US president and the UK’s Brexit from the EU and new legislation such as the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (due to become law in May 2018), it’s highly unlikely that the global nature of the Internet will come to an end any time soon.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 6 – social disaffection threatens the hyper-globalised ITC market

Figure 6 – Brexit increases the tension between suppliers and governments

2017-06

Source: ITCandor, 2017

I can’t avoid addressing the changing political and social landscape in my predictions following the UK’s decision to leave the EU and the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency. There is widespread social dissatisfaction with the current political status quo in many other countries as well, so I expect a number of similar surprises as other countries hold presidential (Germany, France, Serbia and Slovenia in Europe) and/or general (Germany, France, Holland, Norway, Albania, Armenia and the Czech Republic…) elections this year. Increased nationalism around the world will pose a real threat to globalisation and its poster child – the ITC industry.

My sixth prediction is that growing business uncertainty and the reduction of the number and scope of free trade zones across the world will impact ITC sales negatively.

Among the changes you should expect are:

  • An attempt by individual EU countries to capture more corporation tax, rather than allowing multi-national companies to pay their regional taxes in single countries with lower rates, as the do today.
  • Increasing challenges for all sizes of supplier and channel players from the introduction of new tariffs at a country level.
  • A worsening of the skills shortages in those countries (such as the US and UK) which set limits on immigration.

Many new restrictions will be added to those already in place, affecting the largest vendors and distributors most. Time will tell whether the iconoclastic messages of political demagogues will result in an actual reversal in the growing disparity in wealth between the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’. For the first time in generations there are serious challenges to capitalism; perhaps we should study China, which has managed an economic revolution through embracing globalisation without widespread privatisation or democracy.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2017 prediction 9 – more M&A – Cisco will restructure

Table 1 – 2016 acquisitions, joint ventures and offloads by the top 10 ITC suppliers

Supplier Company Area Transaction type
Apple Emotient recognition system acquisition
LeamSprout education software acquisition
Flyby Media augmented reality software acquisition
LegbaCore firmware security acquisition
Carpool Karaoke gaming acquisition
Turi machine learning acquisition
Glimpse health data collection acquisition
Tuplejump machine learning, analytics acquisition
Samsung Viv AI acquisition
Rich Communications texting acquisition
Harman vehicle automation acquisition
Samsung printer business printers offload to HP Inc.
Dacor home appliances acquisition
Joyant Cloud container infrastructure acquisition
AT&T Time Warner film and TV content acquisition
Invidi advertising platform joint bid with DISH and WPP
Quickplay video content delivery acquisition
Verizon Yahoo Internet search excluding Alibaba, Yahoo Japan
Fleetmatics fleet telematics acquisition
Sensity LED sensors acquisition
SocialRadar digital mapping acquisition
HP Enterprise Services (EDS) outsourcinng offload to CSC
Silicon Graphics High Performance Computing acquisition
Software group enterprise software offload to Micro Focus
Trilead data protection software acquisition
RASA Networks network performance/analytics acquisition
Samsung printer business printers acquisition
NTT Dell IT Services (Perot) outsourcing acquisition
Nefos salesforce.com consultancy acquisition
IBM Weather Company climate analytics acquisition
Iris Analytics fraud detection acquisition
Ustream video streaming acquisition
Resource/Ammiriti digital marketing acquisition
Aperto AG digital marketing acquisition
ecx.io AG digital marketing acquisition
Truven Health Analytics healthcare analytics acquisition
Resilient cyber security acquisition
Optevia Microsoft Dynamics solutions for government acquisition
Blue Wolf Group salesforce.com consultancy acquisition
EZSource application discovery acquisition
Promontory Financial risk management and regulatory compliance acquisition
Sanovi Technologies hybrid cloud recovery acquisition
Deutsche Telekom EE mobile phone network from BT
Strato web hosting offloaded to Untied Internet
Microsoft Teacher Gaming education software acquisition
TouchType keyboard productivity acquisition
Groove music discovery acquisition
Xamarin mobile application development acquisition
Solair IoT platform acquisition
Beam.pro video game streaming acquisition
Genee AI scheduling acquisition
LinkedIn social networking acquisition
Vodafone VodafoneZiggo Dutch converged communications joint venture with Liberty Global
Vodafone Libertel consumer fixed line offloaded to T-Mobile
‘Combined Group’ NZ integrated telecoms joint venture with SKY

Source: ITCandor, 2017

There were many acquisitions, mergers and offloads by major suppliers in 2016, culminating in the acquisition of EMC by Dell’s owners. EMC’s experiences show that ‘first mover advantages’[1] don’t always work in our industry – it managed to overtake IBM’s storage business in the 1980s before eventually being acquired despite being the market leader last year. I show all of the activities I could find for the top 10 ITC suppliers (which actually included neither Dell nor EMC) in the Table 1.

The problem for these big suppliers is that, although the overall market is growing slightly, ITC products and services are becoming more commoditised, reducing profitability below the level that can sustain the large number of employees and profit expectations of traditional American, European or Japanese suppliers and their shareholders.

The use of the mega-theme marketing has been a (often naïve) way of trying to manage market commoditisation – it’s as if users are being told ‘this is a very complicated area, we’re the only one that can help you deploy things successfully… and the description of what it is changes every year.’ Merger and acquisition activity is being used to hone each vendor’s portfolio, disposing of the non-core businesses they consider to be unaligned from a total revenue or profitability point of view and/or buying those that offer a better fit with their new strategies. I believe that there is one vendor – Cisco – which has so far avoided significant organisational changes (due mainly to its massive 56% share of the $51b enterprise network market in the year to September).

My ninth prediction is that Cisco will restructure itself in a major way in 2017 in order to compete more effectively with other leading ITC suppliers.

Its market share is especially threatened by Huawei, which is growing its business fast in Europe and Africa and already has larger total revenues than Cisco (including its extensive service provider business).

[1] a marketing term for the advantage gained by the initial significant occupant of a market segment.

Navigate my predictions – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10