ITCandor 2012 Expectations – The Euro Crunch, African Investment And Mobile ITC

ITCandor Expectations 2012 Highlights

1. The Euro Crunch hits – World ITC spending falls -1.4% to $6.5T
2. Spending In EMEA And The Americas Fall, Grows In Asia Pacific – A Year For Africa
3. Distributor business overtakes direct outbound sales – a year for aggregators
4. Government and Manufacturing sector spending declines fastest
5. Consumer falls at the same rate as business spending, will go lower in 2013
6. Cloud Computing becomes a countervailing business – grows 10% to $1.1T
7. Storage hypervisors give users the cost advantages of VMware in the server market
8. Converged devices outsell PCs for the first time
9. A staggered 4G rollout disrupts network and wireless markets
10. Social media plays a vital role in political change

Click on the links above for our detailed predictions

Welcome to this year’s expectations. 2011 has been a year of growth, despite very poor world economic conditions. The ITC business is better than most large markets in being driven by the digitising of previously analogue processes, which by their very nature are cheaper. The increased utility of these new processes often grow associated spending far beyond the processes they replace. Think about how digitisation has increased the photographic market. The inclusion of cameras in smart phones and ease of processing has expanded the market enormously. Unprinted digital images certainly outnumber the 50 billion pages of paper printed each year, even if digital images themselves only account for 5% of printed pages. Cheaper costs, expansion of usage and the modernisation of emerging countries mean that ITC always outgrows GDP. However our industry is not immune from wider economics, as the strong downturn the quarters following the Credit Crunch of 2008 proved.

Within the ITC industry there are many different streams, some fast, some slow – some likely to be more badly affected than others by recession. A small number become countervailing, growing despite – or occasionally because of – economic downturn: in 2001-3 it was data centre outsourcing, in 2008-9, consumer devices. We believe that Cloud services will prove the same in 2012-4, the likely span of the coming market weakness.

In this research paper we look at the future from many dimensions, detailing our expectations for 2012. As always we’ve been able to draw on the extensive statistics of the ITCandor model, which we are eager to promote to you for your business planning activities.

In the following sections we outline or expectations, focusing on the year ahead. We have sized and forecasted each area, based on our findings for the period between Q1 2003 and Q3 2011.

Following last year’s Expectation document (with an accompanying slide set), we have self-assessed of those predictions and published summary of what happened in 2011. This is all-important background for what we’re going to cover here.

Navigate Our Expectations – overview 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10